June 7, 2022

Representatives of Via, the company that powers GoZone, updated the DCTA Board in May about the performance of GoZone, sharing that Denton GoZone’s productivity has averaged 4.7 boardings per vehicle revenue hour. This is slightly more productive than Denton’s least productive bus route before the pandemic, Route 4, which averaged 4.0 boardings per revenue hour. Denton’s most productive bus route, Bernard Street, averaged 61.8 boardings per revenue hour before the pandemic.

According to a presentation in February, Denton’s GoZone is Via’s second most efficient service area in North America.

Prior to the pandemic, the full system of bus routes in Denton, including UNT routes, averaged about 21.6 boardings per revenue hour between October 2019 and February 2020, significantly more productive than the GoZone system has been thus far.

DCTA’s bus system in Lewisville averaged approximately 4.5 boardings per vehicle revenue hour between October 2019 and February 2020. The GoZone system in Lewisville averaged 2.0 boardings per vehicle revenue hour between September 2021 and February 2022.

Via representatives noted that March was GoZone’s most efficient month to date at 3.6 completed rides per vehicle service hour, a different measurement than vehicle revenue hour. March was also when the largest share of potential GoZone passengers, 17 percent, were denied transportation due to lack of available seats.

In Via’s original proposal to DCTA, they estimated that wait times in Denton would be 12-14 minutes in the first year and worsen to 13-15 minute wait times in the second year.

*Images from Page 216 of the* *DCTA Board meeting packet for January 28, 2021*.

Since its launch in September, average proposed wait times for GoZone have never been below 14 minutes and have trended upward each month. Despite proposed wait times decreasing between March and April, actual wait times increased from 25.7 minutes in March to 28.9 minutes in April, according to Via presentations.

*Slide from presentation during the* *DCTA Board meeting on May 26, 2022*.

GoZone’s rising wait times and lack of available seats are partly due to ridership demand and overestimation of how many passengers GoZone could accommodate per vehicle hour. Via’s original proposal assumed an average of roughly 41,400 GoZone trips per month in the first year. Out of eight months of service, monthly ridership has been above 41,400 three times. Average wait times have exceeded 14 minutes even in months when ridership was below 41,400.

In an attempt to lower rising wait times and instances of unavailable seats, the DCTA Board approved an additional $1.5 million in April to add more GoZone service. Via estimated that this “High Quality of Service” funding amount would bring proposed wait times down to 15 minutes and seat unavailability down to 5 percent.

*Presentation slide from the* *DCTA Board meeting on April 28, 2022*.

In the May DCTA Board meeting, Via presented the first two months of data following the funding expansion. Despite the additional funding, proposed wait times were more than 22 minutes and seat unavailability was 10 percent or higher.

Lowering wait times and seat unavailability may require sacrificing system efficiency. The last month when estimated wait times averaged less than 16 minutes was October 2021, when GoZone efficiency was 2.7 passenger trips per vehicle service hour. The last month when seat unavailability was less than 6 percent was December 2021, when GoZone efficiency was 2.8 passenger trips per vehicle service hour.

Fiscal Performance

According to DCTA’s FTA Transit Agency Profile, DCTA had an operating budget of $13.8 million for its bus system in 2019. That year, DCTA’s bus system, including UNT routes, accommodated 2.4 million unlinked trips at a cost to DCTA of about $5.87 per trip.

GoZone is included in the Bus Operations category of DCTA’s current annual budget. With the recent addition of $1.5 million in additional GoZone funding, DCTA has budgeted at least $17.8 million in Bus Operations for Fiscal Year 2022: $7 million for GoZone and $10.8 million for buses and other smaller programs.

*Budget Operations budget on Page 47 of* *DCTA’s FY 2022 Budget*.

In the first eight months of the current fiscal year, ridership on GoZone, Connect buses and UNT buses have averaged a combined 159,590 unlinked trips per month at an average cost to DCTA of $9.30 per trip, about $3.34 more per trip than in 2019 when bus ridership averaged about 196,321 per month.

In the past eight months, GoZone has cost DCTA a rough average of $15.36 per trip while the bus system has cost DCTA a rough average of $7.40 per trip despite riders being drawn away from buses by GoZone’s half-priced fares and sometimes faster service.

Attracting more riders to the bus system could bring DCTA’s per-trip cost to $6 or lower as it was before the pandemic. With on-demand models like GoZone, the cost per trip remains relatively flat as ridership increases, because even modest increases in ridership require more vehicles and drivers. Fixed-route buses can accommodate many more riders before additional buses and drivers are needed.

In the past eight months, combined ridership on GoZone, Connect buses and UNT buses have averaged about 60,000 fewer trips per month than the DCTA bus system in 2019.

If DCTA wished to reach 2019 ridership levels by accommodating an additional 60,000 trips per month on GoZone, they would need to budget approximately $17.8 million annually for GoZone funding alone, assuming the current $10.8 million in bus funding and service remains intact.

This would bring the annual budget for the combined GoZone and bus system to $28.6 million to accommodate the same number of trips that the 2019 bus system carried with a $13.8 million budget.

The above scenario assumes that GoZone’s cost-per-trip for DCTA is $15, proposed wait times are longer than 17 minutes and seat unavailability is anywhere from 5 to 15 percent on average each month.

If DCTA wished to reach 2019 ridership levels by accommodating an additional 60,000 trips per month on fixed route buses, they would need to budget approximately $11.8 million annually for bus funding alone, assuming that current GoZone funding and service remains intact. This would bring DCTA’s annual Bus Operations budget to roughly $18.8 million.

DCTA could theoretically accommodate an additional 60,000 trips per month on fixed route buses without without adding to the existing bus budget. Realistically, though, the current service level of the bus system is unlikely to attract that many riders.

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, DCTA eliminated Denton’s second and fourth most productive bus routes, Route 8 and Route 5, and reduced service hours and route frequency on the remaining routes. Ridership typically drops when bus routes, service hours or frequency are cut.

Deciding the Future of Bus Routes with Incomplete Data

The DCTA Board is set to make decisions soon regarding GoZone fare pricing and the fate of several Connect bus routes for the upcoming Fiscal Year 2023, which begins in September. Decisions are likely to be finalized during the DCTA Board meeting on either June 23 or July 28.

During their meeting on May 26, the DCTA Board was presented data showing current productivity of Connect bus routes versus GoZone. The data was presented as context to help inform the Board’s upcoming decision on whether to cut as many as five remaining Denton bus routes.

The productivity of the two services cannot be sufficiently compared with the previous two images for at least three reasons:

Half-priced fares incentivize riders to choose GoZone over fixed-route buses.
The productivity of one service is presented as a system while the other is not.
Data does not consider productivity of Denton Connect buses prior to GoZone.

Unequal Fare Pricing

Since its introduction in September 2021, GoZone fares have been half-priced at $0.75 while bus fares have been $1.50. Current bus ridership data is likely skewed because of this. There is no data to show ridership or productivity when fares are the same.

Service Productivity

The productivity of GoZone service is presented as a full system while the productivity of bus service is broken down by geography. Further, the productivity of UNT bus routes are not included in analyses despite the fact that more than half of Denton GoZone trips start or end near UNT. UNT bus routes are part of Denton’s bus network and thus should be included in productivity comparisons between Denton’s GoZone system and fixed bus route system.

*Slide from* *presentation during the DCTA Board meeting on April 28, 2022*.

Inefficient low-density development patterns make all transit less productive regardless of whether it’s a fixed-route bus or an on-demand model like GoZone. To truly compare fixed route buses with GoZone, the data should show GoZone’s productivity in both low-density and higher-density areas of Denton. Or, bus productivity data should be presented like GoZone productivity: as a system, including UNT bus service, rather than individual routes.

Performance of Denton Connect Buses Prior to the Growth of GoZone

Prior to a portion of ridership shifting to GoZone and its half-priced fares, nearly all Denton Connect bus routes were more productive than GoZone, on average, before 7 p.m. on weekdays. During peak times, all routes met or exceeded the industry standard of 10 boardings per revenue hour. GoZone has never averaged more than five boardings per revenue hour, even during peak times.

As a system, Denton Connect buses were more productive than Denton’s GoZone system before bus ridership declined, potentially due in part to service cuts and half-priced GoZone fares.

In the two previous charts, the bus data is from September and October 2021, typically high-ridership months. GoZone data is from September 2021 to February 2022, which includes lower-ridership months like December and January. No public data was found that showed monthly productivity of Connect buses from September to February in a fiscal year that did not include GoZone or a pandemic.

Missing Data and Lingering Questions

The DCTA Board is being asked to consider various scenarios for the upcoming fiscal year that could cut anywhere from three to five fixed bus routes. However, bus data and GoZone data presented thus far have been insufficient to accurately compare the two modes and make an informed decision. Many questions remain unanswered.

Which service do riders prefer?

Fares for GoZone have been half the price of Connect bus fares for the entire comparison period, so it’s impossible to accurately assess which service riders prefer and when without more robust outreach and public engagement.

Which system is more productive as a whole?

Via’s presentations to the DCTA Board do not provide sufficient analysis. Despite evidence that GoZone is used heavily by people traveling to and from the UNT area, UNT bus ridership and productivity has been excluded thus far when comparing the productivity of the GoZone system with the productivity of the bus system. Thus, the Board has not been shown which system is more productive as a whole.

Which system is more productive in low-density areas?

Sprawling, low-density development patterns make transit less productive regardless of whether it’s a fixed-route bus or an on-demand vehicle like GoZone.

While Denton bus data is presented by route to show productivity based on geography, including low-density areas, Denton GoZone productivity data is presented as a whole system and does not show its productivity in low-density areas. Thus, the DCTA Board does not know how the productivity of GoZone compares to fixed bus routes in low-density areas where cuts to bus routes are being considered. GoZone data on passenger pick-up and drop-off makes it difficult to compare the productivity of services in specific neighborhoods.

Is productivity being calculated the same way for both systems?

Productivity is measured by vehicle revenue hour, which excludes deadhead time.

For buses, deadhead time is time spent traveling somewhere while out of service, such as to and from the bus depot at the beginning or end of the day. An empty bus traveling between bus stops is not considered deadhead time if the bus is in service.

According to Via’s website, deadhead time for on-demand vehicles includes time spent traveling to a new pickup spot between trips when there are no passengers in the vehicle.

*Definition of* deadhead time *from Via’s* *TransitTech Glossary* *(Screenshot date: 6/7/22)*

This definition suggests that GoZone vehicles operating without passengers are not included in revenue hour calculations, which is different from how fixed-route revenue hours are calculated.

If Via is calculating GoZone productivity using their own definition of deadhead time, their productivity numbers are likely inflated, suggesting that a true apples-to-apples productivity comparison with fixed-route buses would likely produce worse outcomes for GoZone productivity.

Is data accurate for both systems?

Previous presentations to the DCTA Board have indicated that Connect bus ridership data is often understated due to unreliable methods of data collection. Current Connect data that is being compared to GoZone may not be accurate and could be an undercount due to the way it is gathered.

*Image from slide on Page 47 of the* DCTA Board meeting packet for December 2, 2021.

There is currently no way for the public to verify the data provided by Via for GoZone.

What are the impacts on budget and service quality when ridership increases on the GoZone system versus the bus system?

Scenarios presented to the DCTA Board have not addressed the annual budget needs if ridership were to increase to 2019 levels or more on the GoZone system versus on the bus system.

Is it financially sustainable to continually increase ridership on GoZone? How many trips can GoZone accommodate with the available budget? How will service quality and access to public transportation be affected if ridership demand for GoZone exceeds the available budget? How many trips can the full bus system accommodate with the available budget?

Which system is more reliable?

Wait times and seat unavailability data have been provided for the GoZone system, but no comparable data has been presented for the bus system.

What percent of potential passengers are denied transportation due to lack of available seats on GoZone versus fixed route buses?

What is the on-time performance of GoZone versus fixed routes buses? Wait times may be too difficult to compare since GoZone wait times are kept artificially low by rejecting riders whose proposed wait time would be longer than 30 minutes. Further, the time passengers spend attempting to book a GoZone ride is not included in GoZone’s wait time data.

How does the reliability of each service compare for someone needing to get to work, school or an appointment on time? Can someone get transportation when they need it? Is it possible for riders to estimate how much time they should dedicate for each trip?

Which system accommodates the most trips per mile driven?

In 2019, the DCTA bus system accommodated 2.4 million unlinked trips in 1.6 million revenue miles driven–about 1.4 trips per revenue mile. From September 2021 through the first two weeks of May 2022, GoZone has accommodated 328,493 trips in 1.6 million miles driven–about 0.2 trips per mile.

Assuming the GoZone data is also in revenue miles, GoZone must drive seven times more miles than the bus system to carry the same number of passengers.

Which system is safer?

During May DCTA Board meeting, Via representatives shared a comparison of GoZone crashes versus fixed route bus crashes.

On a per-mile basis, GoZone and fixed route buses have similar crash rates that are serious enough to be reported to the Federal Transit Agency (FTA).

Non-FTA crashes, which can include less serious injuries and property damage up to $24,999, were reported for GoZone but not for fixed bus routes. Thus, the two services cannot be compared in terms of overall crash rates.

Fixed Routes or GoZone? It Depends on the Goal.

Despite lingering questions about GoZone and unclear agency goals, the DCTA Board is set to consider a series of scenarios for Fiscal Year 2023 in which up to five remaining bus routes may be cut and replaced with GoZone.

According to GoZone FAQ’s, the DCTA Board has favored GoZone over fixed bus routes because they concluded that it would be “the most advantageous service for both DCTA passengers and the agency overall.” The FAQ does not elaborate on the areas GoZone was thought to be “most advantageous.”

*Screenshot from DCTA’s GoZone FAQ page.*

Lack of specificity in why GoZone was preferred over fixed routes makes it challenging to assess what the DCTA Board’s goals are with GoZone and whether those goals have been met.

In an opinion piece published in the Denton Record Chronicle on September 4, 2021, then-Chair of the DCTA Board, Chris Watts, suggested that the goal of GoZone was to attract more riders by improving the rider experience through improved service, increased convenience and service to a larger population for lower cost than the fixed-route bus system at the time.

While GoZone has certainly expanded the coverage area of public transit and attracted riders to its service, it has been more costly per trip to DCTA than fixed-route buses and has suppressed ridership by turning away thousands of potential rides due to lack of available seats.

Public transit consultant Jarret Walker argues that on-demand transit is a tool to increase transit coverage, not ridership, and that ridership and coverage are opposing goals. “If you want ridership,” says Walker, “you’ll invest more in [...] bus service, not in microtransit or any other low-ridership service.”

Presentations to the DCTA Board thus far have not appeared to compare GoZone and fixed bus routes on rider experience, convenience or whether GoZone has improved service for the average rider. Thus, it is not known whether GoZone has been successful, on average, at improving rider experience, improving service or increasing convenience compared to fixed-route buses.

Without clear agency goals or data on whether GoZone has met those goals, the DCTA Board will consider the following scenarios to make further cuts to the remaining Denton Connect bus routes starting in September of this year.

Scenario A

Eliminate all bus routes with a current daily average of fewer than 9.0 boardings per revenue hour.

Scenario B

Eliminate all bus routes with a current daily average of fewer than 5.4 boardings per revenue hour.

Scenario C

Eliminate all bus routes with a current daily average of fewer than 4.5 boardings per revenue hour.

Scenario D

Eliminate the two least productive bus routes, Route 4 and Route 5, and reinvest the funding into remaining bus routes to improve frequency and service hours.

Next Steps

DCTA is gathering public input on GoZone and buses through June 10. Feedback may be provided at dctafeedback.net.
June 23 - The DCTA Board will discuss these service options and potentially make a decision.
July 28 - The DCTA Board will discuss service options and potentially make a decision if they did not already do so during their meeting on June 23.
DCTA Board meeting dates, agendas and meeting links can be accessed at https://www.dcta.net/about-dcta/board-information.

Data Sources

Bus Data

Bus productivity data for October 2019 - February 2020 pulled from page 137 - 138 of the DCTA Board meeting packet for December 10, 2020.
Bus productivity data for September and October 2021 pulled from page 45 of the DCTA Board meeting packet for December 2, 2021.
Pre-2020 data for bus annual budget, miles traveled, ridership and cost-per-trip data pulled from DCTA’s Transit Agency Profiles.

GoZone Data

GoZone’s monthly data on ridership, proposed estimated wait times, actual wait times and unavailable seat frequency pulled from video recordings of Via presentations to the DCTA Board over multiple meetings, primarily from April 28 and May 26, 2022.
GoZone’s miles driven data pulled from Via’s “GoZone incident history since service launch” slide during the DCTA Board meeting on May 26, 2022.
GoZone’s average cost-per-trip calculated as follows: (1) Divide $7 million GoZone budget by 12 to get monthly average of $583,597. (2) Divide $583,597 monthly average by ridership for each month October 2021 - April 2022. Because GoZone started mid-September, take half of average monthly cost ($291,799) and divide by September ridership. (3) Take monthly cost-per-trip for September 2021 - April 2022 and average together = $15.36.

Denton GoZone Slightly More Productive than Denton’s Least Productive Bus Route

Fiscal Performance